Why The British Media Won't Escape a Westminster Reset
Even after the election, there are more sleepless nights ahead for the Lobby
An unhealthy mix of alarm clocks, beige food and energy drinks have been keeping Britain's political hacks going for the past six weeks. They were meant to be on holiday. Instead, the journalists have adopted the sleep patterns and diets of teenage boys, whilst being stuffed into battle buses, planes and trains.
It’s all been in aid of following the UK’s political leaders around the country. At least there’s been plenty of football to stream as they filed copy from a budget hotel at an unruly hour, no doubt battling with patchy Wi-Fi at the same time.
That’s the type of glamour our political hacks have enjoyed on the campaign trail. Not exactly grabbing a ‘brush-by’ with the President on Air Force One, is it? It’s more like following Rishi Sunak to a McDonald’s, grabbing some breakfast and then trundling over to a warehouse.
The good news is that the political journalists can grab some rest, for now. The biggest news will come at 22:00 BST on Thursday when the BBC unveils its Exit Poll.
The survey, compiled by Professor John Curtice, Rob Ford (full interview here) and the rest of the team, is based on interviews taken at polling stations across the country.
It’s known for its accuracy and the team updates the model throughout the night as more results come in – the first of which is expected to come from the North East of England (Sunderland, Newcastle and some seats in Northumberland battle it out) around 23:30.
In central London, meanwhile, the drinks will start to flow. Politico and The New Statesman will be hosting invite-only events, while party officials will have their own plans to let their hair down away from the cameras.
But there won’t be much rest for those who have to man live blogs or attend battle seat counts throughout the night. Likewise, broadcast production crews, many of which will be ferrying guests to and from Millbank Tower in Westminster, will be on call.
Party spokespeople and their bag carriers will pass College Green, the patch of grass situated east of Westminster Abbey and across the road from the Houses of Parliament, on their way to the studios.
They will all be back there, bleary eyed, when dawn breaks on Friday. By then, we should have a result. The big picture will come in the early hours of Friday (between 04:00 and 05:00), when the 350 seat threshold is expected to be met by Labour.
Keir Starmer’s predicted success has been priced into the campaign since it started, with the Conservatives, supported by The Mail, Daily Express and The Telegraph, warning of a Labour ‘supermajority’.
No doubt reading the mood of the nation and their readers, The FT, The Economist, The Sunday Times and The Sun have all backed Labour (Lachlan Murdoch was apparently on-hand to see that endorsement published in person on Wednesday). But The Times, another New UK title, refused to follow suit, warning that Starmer had “yet to earn the trust of the British people”.
Digital media has probably had its biggest impact on any UK general election to date, with the parties forking out for ads across YouTube, TikTok and Meta’s platforms. Transparency data has shown that Labour has taken a more bespoke approach than the Conservatives, targeting swing seats with tailored videos.
Nigel Farage and Reform have done well on the short-form video platforms thanks to their memeable content and eye-catching rallies. And Ed Davey has been able to cast a spell over the British media by committing himself to a series of stunts. The Liberal Democrat leader has gone from falling off a paddle board at the start of the campaign to bungee jumping at the end of it.
But it’s all for nothing if the parties can’t turn that awareness into votes and those votes into seats in the House of Commons. Depending on which MRP or multilevel regression with poststratification poll you pick, Labour could secure a majority of anything between 130 and 220 seats.
To put those figures into context, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives secured a majority of 80 in 2019 and Tony Blair’s Labour Party won a majority of 179 seats in 1997. Such a scenario would see the Tory Parliamentary Party be washed away. A string of Cabinet Ministers, including the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, would be booted out of Parliament by their constituents.
The Liberal Democrats, on the ascendancy, would battle with the Conservatives to become the voice of opposition (if not officially in the Commons, unofficially in the media), while Farage, who is expected to win in Clacton, would establish his ‘beachhead’ in Parliament.
The next step for the Reform leader would be to boast of his party’s share of the total vote, call for a proportional representation voting system and launch a Bolshevik-style takeover of the Conservative Party.
These events could start to play out in a matter of weeks, with MPs returning to Westminster on 9 July, where they will be asked to either re-elect the current Speaker of the House, Lindsay Hoyle, or vote someone else in.
The King’s Speech, where the monarch formally opens Parliament and outlines the new government’s intentions, is scheduled for Wednesday 17 July. Lobby journalists I’ve spoken to are still working out the many scenarios: will there be a reshuffle of Starmer’s top team, will Sunak remain Tory Party leader and will the Conservatives even last the year?
Others are more focused on their own future. When Blair secured his landslide, there was a cull of political journalists across Fleet Street. The logic was: Why would you need so many reporters to effectively report on one party and one government?
Those gruelling battle bus journeys may pay off after all for the Starmer reporters.
The Media Election Plans
The BBC’s election plan (link)
Sky News’ election plan (link)
ITV News’ election plan (link)
Channel 4’s election plan (link)
Expect live blogs and analysis from The Times, FT, The Telegraph, The Guardian, The Independent, The New Statesman and The Spectator
Key general election records and other stats (link)
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Operation Southside: Inside the UK media’s plan to reconcile with Labour
📧 Contact
For high-praise, tips or gripes, please contact the editor at iansilvera@gmail.com or via @ianjsilvera. Follow on LinkedIn here.
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