What a 'No Consensus' World Actually Looks Like
Why the race to the 30% election winner has already started
We had one voice of TV truth (the 1950s to the late 1980s), many voices of cable news truth (the 1990s to the end of the 2000s) and then digital truths across a handful of platforms (2004 to the early 2010s).
Now the truth is spread across a plethora of platforms as well as personalities. That is the no-consensus world we live in, where families are divided by their algo-driven devices and trust in the media is at an all-time low (link).
It’s a familiar story and though it is worth exploring how we got here, it’s also worth considering what happens next. To do exactly that, I’ve decided to look at the ‘no consensus’ phenomenon from a European perspective.
Unlike the US, we typically have multi-party systems and hold a higher amount of trust in the established media and other institutions.
To zoom the analysis further in, I’ve focused on the UK, which, until recently, has been behind the rest of European when it comes to pluralistic political economies.
A big reason for that is that the UK and France are the only two major European powers which don’t use some form of proportional representation voting, where an electorate can make multiple choices at the ballot box by using a scored system.
But in spite of the UK’s first-past-the-post or winner takes all set-up, which has traditionally returned a clear government from one of the major two parties (Labour or the Conservatives from the 1920s onwards), my research shows that the ‘no consensus’ phenomenon will usher in an age of multi-party politics.
Not only that, lawmakers will win their seats on record low voting numbers, prompting questions about representation, get out the vote (GOTV) initiatives and the role technology and media can play as a kingmaker in future UK and European elections.
But before I get into the data, here’s a bit more history and context which I think is sometimes overlooked when we talk about where we’re at today and where we’re going next.
Namely, we should factor into our thinking the three major macro-economic and geo-political events of the early 21st Century. The Iraq War, the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic.
In Europe, you should also add in the Euro area crisis and the migration crisis. For the UK, put the 2016 EU referendum vote in the mix as well. This event prompted David Cameron to quit Downing Street, with Theresa May succeeding him as Prime Minister.
She would hold a general election in 2017, which the Conservatives won but without a majority in the House of Commons. On average, 27,685 votes were needed to win a seat at that election.
Fast forward two years and the Tories had put Boris Johnson in charge. He held a general election in 2019 and secured a majority. However, the average number of votes needed to become an MP had dropped to 26,880 votes.
By 2024, Johnson had been forced from Downing Street and Rishi Sunak triggered another national vote. Labour secured a majority this time and the average number of votes needed to win a parliamentary constituency had fallen further, this time to 18,504. A 33% drop over the space of seven years.
According to Nuffield Politics Research Centre (link), 411 of 650 seats were decided on a vote share of less than 34% at the 2024 genera election.
Voters had increasingly become more fickle, breaking traditional party loyalties and trying new political choices at the ballot box. The alternative options — the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and The Greens — all benefited from this behaviour.
The average vote share needed to become an MP
2017: 55.7%
2019: 54.3%
2024: 42.50%
It looks like the 30% share of vote marker will be the new standard for British politics. In fact, there’s evidence that we’re already there.
There were eight constituencies decided on a vote share of less than 30% at the 2024 general election, including South West Norfolk. This is where former Prime Minister Liz Truss lost to Labour thanks, in part, to a strong showing from Reform UK (link). Terry Jermy would only need 26.7% of the vote to win the seat.
It was a similar story in the Welsh seat of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, where the Liberal Democrats’ David Chadwick won the constituency with just 29.5% of the vote in a three-way contest against Labour and the Conservatives.
Using a simulation of current polling (outlined below) and the 2024 election results, an average vote share of 32-34% might be needed to win a seat at the next national poll.
Current opinion polling in the UK
Reform UK (RUK): 32%
Labour (Lab): 23%
Conservative (Con): 18%
Liberal Democrats (LD): 13%
Green: 8%
Given that each House of Commons constituency has an electorate of around 70,000, with a 65% average national turnout over the past three general elections (45,000 people actually voting), you would only need 14,000 to 15,000 votes to become an MP.
That’s the average. If we have more contests with 26.7% winners, as was the case in South West Norfolk, you will have more representatives with the backing of just 12,000 people or less.
And these estimates don’t even include Jeremy Corbyn’s new ‘YourParty’, which is expected to run candidates at the next election and creating more three-way contests in the process.
There are lots of first, second and third order consequences to this new system, some of which I’ve outlined below:
The voting system itself will face scrutiny as MPs will have fewer and fewer constituents actually voting for them
Tactical voting will be encouraged more and more, while public policy positions will have to bake-in another dynamic — voters of other parties
It will make endorsements from the media and businesses harder (at the last election Labour was able to secure some lukewarm support from the British press)
GOTV campaigns will have to rely on media more to target voters at the right time and place
The fight for air-time across traditional and new media outlets will become intensified, with parties knowing ever vote will count
Candidates will increasingly have to have a strong local appeal, rather than being parachuted into a contest
Personal branding will also become a ‘thing’, with wannabe MPs having to create and manage their own YouTube, Instagram and TikTok channels
Some unexpected coalitions may emerge as the politicians follow the voters and drop their traditional party loyalties
All in all, there is going to be considerable volatility and transformation within British politics ahead. For the 'no consensus' phenomenon, it could easily be catalysed by these conditions.
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